Call For Expression of Interest: To Conduct a Conflict Risk and Context Analysis
CONSULTANCY TERMS OF REFERENCE (TOR)
1.0 Introduction
Women’s International Peace Center (The Peace Center) is a feminist organization that seek to ignite women’s leadership, through amplifying women’s voices and deepening their activism to (re) create peace. We are one of the leading actors on “Women, Peace and Security” informed by United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1325, the Sustainable Development Goals 5 and 16 and other women, peace and security frameworks.
Women’s International Peace Centre is implementing Activity entitled ‘Ugandans for Peace” in partnership with the Auschwitz Institute for the Prevention of Genocide and Mass Atrocities (AIPG), Creations Forum Afrika (CAF), Kabarole Research and Resource Centre (KRC), and Warrior Squad Foundation (WSF), with support from USAID. It is aimed at preventing, mitigating and responding to political violence and building social cohesion and promoting peace in Uganda. In the initial stages, the Activity will focus on broader interventions covering pre- election, election and post – election processes. The Activity builds on the success of The Peace Centre’s implementation of the Women’s Situation Room regional mechanism composed of the youth peer-to-peer peace process and women advocates for peace programs implemented in 2016 and 2021 election cycles.
1.1 Activity Background
The Ugandans for Peace Activity is a 4 years USAID supported Activity which aims to prevent, mitigate, and respond to political violence, build social cohesion, and promote peace in Uganda. Covering 46 districts from 2024 to 2028, the Activity focuses on enhancing local capacities for early warning and response, conflict prevention, peacebuilding, and mediation, in alignment with national and international frameworks such as the Electoral Commission Act, Uganda’s National Action Plan III on Women, Peace, and Security, UN Security Council Resolutions 1325 and 2250, and SDG 16+.
1.1.1 Rationale
Conducting a Conflict Risk and Context Analysis is essential for understanding the underlying factors that drive conflict, assessing potential risks, and informing interventions to promote peace and stability in relationship to the upcoming general elections in 2026. The rationale is summarized below:
1.Understanding Root Causes and Dynamics: Conflict is often driven by complex, interwoven factors like political, economic, social, and cultural issues that cause electoral violence. A thorough analysis identifies the underlying causes, key actors, interests, and historical grievances that shape the conflict dynamics, helping stakeholders avoid oversimplified solutions.
2.Assessing Risk and Early Warning: Conflict analysis provides an early warning system by identifying factors that may escalate violence or unrest. Through this proactive approach, organizations and governments can develop interventions to reduce vulnerabilities and strengthen peace and stability before conflicts become widespread.
3. Informing Strategy and Program Design: By understanding the local context, stakeholders can design targeted programs that address specific conflict drivers and are tailored to the local realities, rather than implementing generic solutions. This makes interventions more relevant, effective, and sustainable.
4. Building Local Capacities for Peace: Analysis highlights the capacities and strengths within communities, such as local peacebuilders and institutions, that can contribute to conflict resolution. Empowering these local actors fosters resilience, social cohesion, and sustainable peace by making the response community-led and context-specific.
5. Mitigating Potential Harm: External interventions can unintentionally exacerbate tensions or reinforce power imbalances if they are not sensitive to the conflict context.
Conducting a risk and context analysis helps identify potential adverse effects and informs measures to minimize unintended harm.
6. Monitoring and Adaptive Management: A conflict context is fluid and may evolve rapidly. An analysis framework allows stakeholders to monitor changes in the conflict landscape,
adjust strategies as needed, and ensure responses remain aligned with the shifting realities on the ground.
7. Supporting Informed Decision-Making: The findings from a conflict risk and context analysis provide critical information for policymakers, funders, and program implementers. This information helps in making informed decisions and allocating resources where they are most likely to reduce conflict and build peace.
Therefore, the findings of the Conflict Risk and Context Analysis will provide a foundation for understanding and addressing the unique challenges that drive electoral violence. It will enhance the effectiveness of peacebuilding efforts, promotes a deeper understanding of local needs and capacities, and ultimately contribute to more resilient, peaceful communities. The study will inform strategies for promoting good governance, human rights and democracy in Uganda.
2.0 Purpose and Objectives of the Consultancy
The purpose of this consultancy is to conduct a comprehensive Conflict Risk and Context Analysis for the Ugandans for Peace Activity. The consultant will assess conflict dynamics, political, social, and economic factors, and identify key actors involved in conflict and peace processes. The analysis will provide actionable recommendations for the Activity to mitigate risks, enhance peacebuilding efforts, and adapt to changing contexts. In addition, baseline data for select
indicators will be collected for the Activity Monitoring, Evaluation & Learning Plan (AMELP).
2.1 Specific Objectives
The specific objectives of the Consultancy are to;
- Conduct a thorough analysis of the conflict landscape in nine selected districts, examining key drivers, triggers, and dynamics of electoral violence.
- Identify and map key actors (State, Non-state, Community, CSOs, International) involved in electoral violence and peace efforts.
- Assess socio-political, economic, and cultural factors fueling electoral violence, and identify peacebuilding opportunities.
- Provide actionable recommendations for conflict-sensitive programming, including strategies to prevent, mitigate, and respond to electoral violence, along with risk mitigation measures for effective Activity implementation.
- Collect baseline data for key select indicators for the AMELP.
3.0 Methodology
The Consultant will use qualitative and quantitative techniques; specifically, He/she will be expected to conduct a desk review of relevant documents, reports, policies, and frameworks related to conflict, peace, and governance in Uganda and globally. In addition, Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) from key stakeholders in the select districts, will be conducted to gather primary data on each of the study topics and thus, the consultant is expected to produce a report highlighting both qualitative and quantitative data.
3.1 Scope of Work
The consultant will undertake the following tasks:
- Conduct a desk review of relevant documents, reports, policies, and frameworks related to conflict, peace, and governance in Uganda.
- Develop integrated tools to collect Conflict Risk and Context Analysis as well as baseline data for key performance indicators identified in the Ugandans for Peace Activity Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning (AMEL) Plan.
- Carry out field-based data collection in 9 selected districts (Kampala, Wakiso, Soroti, Kotido, Adjumani, Arua, Mbarara, Kasese) through questionnaire, key informant interviews (KIIs), focus group discussions (FGDs), and participatory conflict mapping.
- Engage with key stakeholders, including, electoral stakeholders, local authorities, community leaders, civil society organizations, women’s and youth groups, and other relevant actors.
- Analyze conflict risk factors at national, regional, and district levels, considering both short-term and long-term trends. The focus here is for needs before, during and after 2026 elections
- Produce a Conflict Risk and Context Analysis report with key findings, conflict drivers, actor mapping, risks, and peacebuilding opportunities.
- Present findings and recommendations to the Ugandans for Peace Activity team and relevant stakeholders.
3.2 Inception Report
A detailed inception report on the consultant’s proposed Conflict Risk and Context Analysis design and methodology will be submitted to the Peace Centre for approval. This will provide preliminary understanding based on document review, rationale and a detailed description of the methodology and tools, analytical methods, budget with a breakdown of costs and detailed work plan for the entire exercise. Any draft questionnaires or interview guides will also be submitted for review at this stage.
3.3 Expected Deliverables
I. Inception Report: Detailing the consultant’s approach, methodology, work plan, and data collection tools.
II. Draft Findings Report: Highlighting preliminary findings from the desk review and fieldwork.
III. Conflict Risk and Context Analysis Report: A comprehensive report that includes conflict drivers, key actors, risks, and recommendations for conflict-sensitive programming with baseline values for select indicators (final report). Two (2) hard copies and soft copy of the report of not more than 30 pages (Excluding preliminary pages and annexes).
The report should be structured as follows:
a) Title page (title of assignment, author(s) of report)
b) Table of contents
c) List of tables and figures
d) Executive Summary (maximum 2 pages; summarizes ToR, methodology, findings, lessons, conclusions and recommendations)
e) Introduction (background of study, contextual issues, methodology)
f) Findings (addresses requirement of the ToR)
g) Conclusions (well supported by evidence from findings)
h) Recommendations (realistic and clearly set out and cross referenced to the relevant section within the main body of the Report)
i) Appendices (supplementary data: questionnaires, guides, maps, full ToR, list of
contacts/resources, references etc.).
IV. Presentation: A PowerPoint presentation of key findings and recommendations for the Activity team and stakeholders.
V. Dataset (FGDs, KII, Transcripts etc,) with raw data in soft copy.
4.0 Criteria for Selection;
A two-stage approach shall be adopted in evaluating the proposals. The technical evaluation shall be carried out first, followed by the financial evaluation. The technical evaluation has 70% and financial proposal 30% weights. The evaluation areas, expectations and maximum score are presented in the table below.
| Evaluation Area | Expectation | Max Score |
|---|---|---|
| Consultant/Firm Experience | A brief of past relevant assignments indicating scope, geographic coverage, staff involved, budget, and client (name and contacts) | 30 |
| Understanding of TOR and Proposed approach and Methodology/Work Plan | Consultant’s perspective of what the assignment entails and the key considerations that should be made to implement it successfully. Any expert recommendations to the ToR. | 20 |
| Qualification & Experience of proposed consultants relevant to the study | CVs for proposed consultants staff indicating their academic qualification and clear relevant experience in Peace and Conflict Studies, Political Science or International Relations | 20 |
| Financial Costs | A breakdown of costs detailing proposed consultants’ days, daily rates, taxes and other direct costs related to the assignment in UGX. | 30 |
| Total Score | 100 |
4.1 Reporting and Management
The successful firm or consultant will work under direct supervision of the Monitoring, Evaluation, Reporting & Learning (MERL) Manager.
4.2 Timeline
The Conflict Risk and Context Analysis is expected to start in January 2025 for a period of 15 working days.
5. Consultant Qualifications, Skills and Competencies
The consultant/Firm selected will have the following expertise and qualifications:
• Advanced degree in Peace and Conflict Studies, Political Science, International Relations, or a related field.
• At least 7 years of experience in conducting conflict risk assessments, context analysis, or peace and security studies in fragile or conflict-affected settings.
• Proven experience working in Uganda or similar contexts with an understanding of the political, social, and economic dynamics of conflict in the region.
• Excellent analytical and report-writing skills with the ability to produce high-quality reports in English.
• Strong interpersonal and communication skills, with experience in conducting interviews and consultations with a diverse range of stakeholders.
• Familiarity with conflict-sensitive programming and donor-funded Activity’s, preferably USAID programs.
5.1 Payment Terms;
The payment plan will be based on deliverables outlined and upon successful and satisfactory completion of activities. Therefore, the payment terms shall be as follows;
| Percentage | Deliverable |
|---|---|
| 40% | Initial payment; upon submission and approval of the inception report and its accompanying tools. |
| 40% | Second payment; upon submission of a draft report |
| 30% | Final payment; upon submission and approval of the Conflict Risk and Context Analysis report |
6.0 Mode of Application
Firms or consultants who meet the requirements should submit their technical and financial proposal to: procurement@wipc.org not later than 10th January 2025 at 5:00PM East Africa Time. Any application submitted after the set deadline and time will not be considered.
